Key To Forecasting From Nate Silver In The Signal And The Noise

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The author in the chapter on baseball makes the point of what is the key to forecasting. On page 100, this is what he says:

“The key to making a good forecast, as we observed in chapter 2, is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information. Rather, it’s having a good process for weighing the information appropriately. This is the essence of Beane’s (The Oakland Athletics General Manager) philosophy: collect as much information as possible, but then be as rigorous and disciplined as possible when analyzing it.”

This immediately made me go back and think about process vs. outcome which Michael Mauboussin really stresses. I am working on starting a new business and I must remember to focus on being rigorous and disciplined in my decision making. I plan on going back to Mauboussin and reading to make sure I haven’t missed anything.


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