Currently Analytically Rereading: The Signal And The Noise By Nate Silver

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I ran across this on page 53 and felt like it would be on interest to our readers. The discussion here is in having the right attitude for making predictions and that we should be a fox instead of a hedgehog. First, today we will share some of the characteristics of being a fox and being a hedgehog. Below is from Figure 2-2 from page 54.

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One of the interesting thoughts I had when I read this was if I wanted to become a better forecaster and I was a hedgehog, what would be required to make myself into a fox? It seems there would need to be quite a bit of change in a person’s personality and mental make-up. Am I thinking about this correctly? Any thoughts from our readers?


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