Currently Rereading Think Twice By Michael J. Mauboussin

Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Michael J. Mauboussin is a short book consisting of only 143 pages but with a tremendous note section as well as a very comprehensive bibliography. Some of my takeaways I wanted to share with our readers:

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From page 3 about making decisions using the inside view:

“An inside view considers a problem by focusing on the specific task and by using information that is close at hand, and makes predictions based on that narrow and unique set of inputs.”

From page 4 about making decisions using the outside view:

“The outside view asks if there are similar situations that can provide a statistical basis for making a decision. Rather than seeing a problem as unique, the outside view wants to know if others have faced comparable problems and, if so, what happened. the outside view is a unnatural way to think, precisely because it forces people to set aside all the cherished information they have gathered.”

Also on page 4:

“Why do people tend to embrace the inside view?”

There are three illusions that people take to support the use of the inside view:

(1) The illusion of superiority

From page 5:

“Remarkably, the least capable people often have the largest gaps between what they think they can do and what they actually achieve.”

From page 6

(2) The illusion of optimism

“Most people see their future as brighter than that of others.”

And finally:

(3) There is the illusion of control.

“People who believe that they have some control have the perception that their odds of success are better that they actually are.”

I really believe there are some lessons to be learned here about the inside view and outside view in our decision-making process. Please consider these and most of all use them.

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2 thoughts on “Currently Rereading Think Twice By Michael J. Mauboussin

  1. Pingback: Currently Rereading: Think Twice By Michael J. Mauboussin Part Two | Consilient Interest

  2. Pingback: Currently Rereading: Think Twice By Michael J. Mauboussin Part Three | Consilient Interest

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