What Is The Lindy Effect?

What exactly is the Lindy Effect? It is defined as the contrast with the life expectancy of humans or animals versus an idea or a technology which implies that every additional day may imply a longer life expectancy. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, ” The robustness of an item is proportional to its life.”

Some examples of this include our reading of books: Books that have been in existence for a lengthy period of time such as books from the 18th century are more than likely to be in existence a lengthy period of time in the future than new books that become obsolete. Therefore due to the time that we have to read it is better to invest that time in books that have been around for a long period of time.

What about disease? There are certain modern diseases that are due to modernity as compared to malaria which has been around since the beginning of time. Will malaria last longer that these so called modern diseases that have been invented by conditions?

How about college? It is stated that subjects such as Mathematics, Engineering and Natural Sciences are more robust than let’s say Social Sciences and Business.

For more on the Lindy Effect see these books and blog posts

The Fractal Geometry Of Nature Benoit Mandelbrot

The Black Swan: The Impact Of The Highly Improbable Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Endeavor-Blog of John Cook

Currently Analytically Reading: Superforecasting: The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

I received my copy yesterday of Superforecasting: The Art And Science of Prediction and I can’t tell you how excited I am! This is a book that I have looked forward to for the better part of this year. I will report on this later but in the meantime I will put several links that you might be interested in concerning the book and this topic. Consider going to www.superforecasting for more on this.

Some links from www.edge.org about the Master Classes about Superforecasting:

(1) Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course In Superforecasting, Class I

(2) Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course In Superforecasting, Class II

(3) Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course In Superforecasting, Class III

(4) Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course In Superforecasting, Class IV

(5) Edge Master Class 2025: A Short Course In Superforecasting, Class V

I have read the transcripts of all these and I recommend them highly. I want to go back and watch the videos to pick up some of the finer points.

Here is a review from John Horgan from the Scientific American blog

Here is another review from The Economist

Here’s another from The Unz Review

Here are some videos also that may be of interest:


Some Thoughts About Listening From Various Authors

“People generally see what they look for, and hear what they listen for.”

Harper Lee (To Kill A Mockingbird)

“Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens”

Jimi Hendrix

“Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self-confidence.”

Robert Frost

“I have faith that God will show you the answer. But you have to understand that sometimes it takes a while to be able to recognize what God wants you to do. That’s how it often is. God’s voice is usually nothing more than a whisper, and you have to listen very carefully to hear it. But other times, in those rarest of moments, the answer is obvious and rings as loud as a church bell.”

Nicholas Sparks (The Last Song)

“When people talk, listen completely. Most people never listen.”

Ernest Hemingway

Some More Thoughts On Self-Control From Various Authors

“If you conquer yourself, then you conquer the world”

Paulo Coelho

“He who controls others may be powerful, but he who has mastered himself is mightier still.”

Lao Tzu

“If you lack the iron and the fuzz to take control of your own life, if you insist on leaving your fate to the gods, then the gods will repay your weakness by having a grin or two at your expense. Should you fail to pilot your own ship, don’t be surprised at what inappropriate port you find yourself docked. The dull and prosaic will be granted adventures that will dice their central nervous systems like an onion, romantic dreamers will end up in the rope yard. You may protest that it is too much to ask of an uneducated fifteen-year-old girl that she defy her family, her society, her weighty cultural and religious heritage in order to pursue a dream that she doesn’t really understand. Of course it is asking too much. The price of self-destiny is never cheap, and in certain situations it is unthinkable. But to achieve the marvelous, it is precisely the unthinkable that must be thought.”

Tom Robbins

“Control Your Own Destiny or Someone Else Will”

Jack Welch

“The ability to subordinate an impulse to a value is the essence of the proactive person.”

Stephen R. Covey


Some Thoughts About Honesty From Various Authors

“Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world…would do this, it would change the earth.”

William Faulkner

“Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters”

Albert Einstein

Eleanor_Roosevelt_at_United_Nations.png (476×600)

“No matter how plain a woman may be, if truth and honesty are written across her face, she will be beautiful.”

Eleanor Roosevelt

“To believe in something, and not to live it, is dishonest.”

Mahatma Gandhi

“Honesty is the first chapter of the book wisdom.”

Thomas Jefferson

Some Thoughts About Wisdom From Various Authors

“The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.”

Isaac Asimov

“Knowing others is intelligence; knowing yourself is true wisdom. Mastering others is strength; mastering yourself is true power. If you realize that you have enough, you are truly rich.”

Lao Tzu ( Tao Te Ching)

“Every generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.”

George Orwell

“Wisdom comes from experience. Experience is often a result of lack of wisdom.”

Terry Pratchett

“Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself.”





Some Thoughts On Courage From Various Authors

“Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen.”

Winston Churchill

“You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You are able to say to yourself, ‘I have lived through this horror. I can take the next thing that comes along.’ You must do the thing you think you cannot do.”

Eleanor Roosevelt

“Above all, be the heroine of your life, not the victim.”

Nora Ephron

“It takes a great deal of bravery to stand up to our enemies, but just as much to stand up to our friends.”

J.K. Rowling

“It takes courage to grow up and become who you really are.”

E.E. Cummings